In-Event Support

Overview

When you're in the final 24 hours before or during a high-risk weather event, your focus in Wildfire Operations shifts from planning to real-time operational support. This tutorial guides you through monitoring live conditions, validating predictions against observations, running dynamic simulations as conditions change, and providing continuous situational awareness to support tactical decisions from changes to crew operations to Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) initiation.

What you'll learn:

• How to monitor real-time weather and risk indicators.

• Techniques for validating observations against predicted conditions.

• Approaches to running updated simulations as events unfold.

• Ways to communicate time-critical information to personnel.

Prerequisites

Before starting this tutorial, ensure you have:

• Completed the Assess and Advise prerequisites and tutorial including:

  • Identified priority assets and decision triggers,

  • Established communication plans with field operations and leadership.

  • Prepared simulation scenarios for likely conditions.

  • Generated and distributed asset lists to operational teams.

  • Prepared briefing materials for stakeholders.

Step 1: Monitor Real-Time Weather and Risk

Active monitoring keeps you informed as conditions develop and change throughout the event. Continuous monitoring allows you to detect when situations are developing worse—or better—than predicted, enabling dynamic decision-making rather than relying on outdated forecasts.

Monitor Risk Level Changes

Use the criteria you identified during Assess and Advise for continuous tracking throughout the event.

1. Compare current metrics against previous forecasts from Assess and Advise.

2. Note any assets that have transitioned to higher risk categories.

3. Identify geographic zones where conditions are worse (or better) than predicted.

4. Review your priority asset list—are the same assets still at highest risk?

Document Conditions

Create a timeline log recording key changes. Examples include:

• Key weather observations at regular intervals.

• Times when critical thresholds are met.

• Significant deviations from the forecast.

• Assets making risk level transitions.

Step 2: Validate Observations Against Expected Conditions

Comparing real-time observations with your pre-event predictions helps you understand if the event is unfolding as anticipated. It’s important to monitor real-time observations closely to during an event to watch for signs for increased outage potential and increased fire danger.

Compare Weather Observations to Forecast

Create a comparison framework. For example:

Evaluate Risk Accuracy

Pre-event forecasts are guides, not guarantees. Validating predictions against observations tells you whether your planned responses remain appropriate or need adjustment. Early detection of diverging conditions allows you to adapt before situations become critical.

1. Review the risk levels assigned to your priority assets during assessment.

2. Based on actual observed conditions, do current risk levels seem appropriate?

3. Identify any assets where risk appears:

   • Underestimated: Observed conditions are worse than modeled

   • Overestimated: Observed conditions are less severe than predicted

   • Accurately predicted: Observations align with expectations

Check for Outliers

Look for localized variations. Examples include:

• Equipment issues: Single station reporting anomalous data.

• Geographic patterns: One region experiencing conditions different from broader territory.

Assess Forecast Confidence

Based on validation results, determine your confidence level. For example:

High Confidence Scenario

• Observations closely match predictions

• Multiple weather stations show consistent patterns

• Continue with planned responses

Moderate Confidence Scenario

• Some parameters diverge from forecast

• Patterns are generally consistent but magnitude differs

• Adjust decision thresholds accordingly

Low Confidence Scenario

• Significant divergence from forecast

• Unexpected wind shifts or weather pattern changes

• Re-run simulations with observed conditions

Document Validation Findings

Record for each priority area:

• Forecast accuracy assessment

• Critical deviations noted

• Confidence level in continuing with pre-planned responses

• Need for updated analysis

Step 3: Use Cameras and Weather Stations for Ground Truth

Visual confirmation and local sensor data provide crucial ground truth that complements broader weather models.

Access Camera Feeds

Using the Map in Wildfire Operations:

1. Use the Layer Selector to enable Camera data.

2. Identify cameras covering your priority asset areas.

3. Review camera imagery. Examples of conditions to note in camera imagery might include:

• Smoke columns

• Visibility conditions

• Vegetation response

• Weather indicators

For priority assets, actions to consider might include:

• Checking multiple cameras.

• Viewing cameras from multiple angles if available.

• Comparing visual conditions across geographic areas.

• Establishing baseline appearance for each location (helps detect changes).

Access Real-Time Weather Data

1. Navigate to the Asset List in the Map view.

2. Use the Layer Selector to turn on assets such as Weather Stations.

3. Focus on weather stations nearest your priority assets (identified in Assess and Advise phase), and use multiple stations to understand spatial patterns.

4. Consider each station's individual characteristics (for example: elevation, exposure, typical biases).

5. Conduct data quality checks. For example:

• Verify stations are reporting current data (check timestamps).

• Compare adjacent stations for consistency.

• Flag suspicious readings (sudden spikes, frozen values, out-of-range data).

Integrate Visual and Sensor Data

Combine information sources to integrate visual and sensor data.

Example Integration:

• Weather station shows 30 mph winds from northeast

• Camera imagery confirms trees bending northeast

• No smoke visible in any camera views

• Conclusion: Conditions match predictions, no active fires in monitored areas

Create Observation Reports

Document conditions at regular intervals. For example:

• Camera observations from each priority zone.

• Weather station readings from key locations.

• Notable changes from previous observation period.

• Confidence in situational awareness (clear picture vs. limited visibility).

Step 4: Run Updated Simulations as Conditions Change

When observed conditions diverge significantly from forecasts, running new simulations with current data ensures your understanding of potential fire behavior remains accurate.

Identify When to Re-Run Simulations

Trigger updated modeling when in changing scenarios. For example:

• Wind speed differs from forecast.

• Wind direction shifts.

• Humidity drops below predicted minimum.

• New fire ignitions are detected or reported.

• Original simulations are outdated during rapidly changing conditions.

Update Simulation Parameters

1. Access your saved simulation scenarios from the Assess and Advise phase.

2. Modify parameters to reflect current observations.

Run Priority Simulations First

Focus on highest-value scenarios. For example:

• Existing fires: If ignitions have occurred, model their potential spread immediately.

• Worst-case assets: Re-run simulations for your priority assets.

• Changed conditions: Focus on areas where observations diverged most from forecast.

Adjust Response Plans

Pre-event simulations are based on forecasts that may not pan out exactly. As real conditions unfold, updating your simulations ensures your understanding of threats, timing, and required responses stays current. Operating on outdated simulations during dynamic events leads to poor resource allocation and missed opportunities to protect assets. Examples of actions based on updated simulations include:

If Conditions Are Worse Than Predicted:

• Escalate protection measures for newly threatened assets.

• Expand PSPS zones.

• Increase coordination with suppression agencies.

If Conditions Are Better Than Predicted:

• Maintain current posture (don't relax prematurely).

• Note favorable conditions in documentation.

• Update stakeholders on improved situation.

If New Threats Emerge:

• Run simulations from new ignition points.

• Identify assets in newly threatened areas.

• Develop contingency protection plans.

Save and Document Updated Simulations

For each simulation:

• Use informative titles for easy differentiation.

  • Include timestamp, location, and scenario type.

  • Example: "AssetGroup_C_ActualConditions_1415hrs_Feb4_HighWind".

• Note key differences from original predictions. For example:

  • What changed from the Assess and Advise phase?

  • What operational impacts resulted?

• Record decisions made based on updated analysis. For example:

  • Which protective measures were modified?

  • What communications were sent?

  • Who authorized changes?

• Create visual outputs such as maps and tables for briefings. Examples of outputs might include:

  • Side-by-side comparisons showing forecast vs. observed.

  • Perimeter progression showing new timeline.

  • Asset impact maps highlighting newly threatened infrastructure.

Communicate Changes to Stakeholders

When updated simulations change the operational picture, provide new communications. Examples might include:

For Field Teams:

• "Updated modeling shows fire reaching Asset X 2 hours earlier than predicted due to higher winds"

For Leadership:

• "Conditions have deteriorated; original assessment underestimated threat to Zone 3 assets"

For Emergency Response:

• "Revised fire spread indicates potential impact to evacuation routes on [Road/Highway] within [timeframe]; recommend activating alternate routing protocols"

Step 5: Maintain Continuous Situational Awareness

Throughout the event, synthesize information from all sources into coherent operational intelligence. In-event operations demand maintaining the current operational picture across multiple information sources while managing real-time decisions. Structured monitoring cycles, synthesis of diverse data, and disciplined documentation ensure you don't miss critical changes and can rapidly brief stakeholders or respond to emerging situations.

Establish Monitoring Cycle

Create a regular rhythm for updates. For example:

Every 1-2 Hours During Peak Conditions:

• Check real-time weather readings

• Review camera feeds

• Update condition logs

• Assess if situation has changed materially

Every 4-6 Hours or When Conditions Change:

• Validate observations against predictions

• Re-run simulations if warranted

• Update stakeholder briefings

• Adjust protective measures based on evolving conditions

  • Modify resource positions

  • Update PSPS scopes

  • Change crew operation limits

At Shift Changes:

• Provide comprehensive briefing to incoming personnel

• Document current conditions and trends

• Review decision triggers and thresholds

• Transfer awareness of any developing situations

Maintain Decision Log

Record all significant decisions. For example:

• What action was taken?

• What information drove the decision?

• Who authorized or made the decision?

• Outcome or current status.

Prepare Rapid Briefings

Keep templated briefing materials ready to update. Examples of materials for rapid briefings might include:

Current Conditions Summary:

• Weather snapshot.

• Risk levels across territory.

• Any active fires or events.

• Resource status and positions.

Threat Assessment:

• Priority assets under elevated threat.

• Time-critical concerns.

• Protective measures underway.

Operational Picture:

• Resource deployments.

• Coordination with external agencies.

• Decision points approaching.

• Information gaps or uncertainties.

Best Practices for In-Event Operations

Stay Ahead of Conditions

• Don't wait for perfect information—make decisions with best available data.

• Update analysis as new information arrives.

• Anticipate next 2-4 hours, not just current moment.

Communicate Proactively

• Brief stakeholders before they ask.

• Provide context, not just raw data.

• Distinguish between facts, assessments, and predictions.

Document Everything

• Time-stamp all observations and decisions.

• Save simulation outputs with conditions used.

• Maintain audit trail for post-event analysis.

• Record information sources for each decision.

Trust But Verify

• Use multiple information sources when possible.

• Cross-check camera observations with weather data.

• Question anomalies or unexpected readings.

Maintain Operational Focus

• Wildfire Operations provides information—you provide judgment.

• Balance thoroughness with speed of decision-making.

• Keep leadership informed without overwhelming detail.

Plan for Communication Loss

• Establish contingency protocols if Wildfire Operations becomes unavailable.

• Brief backup methods for receiving weather data.

• Identify alternate decision-makers if primary contacts unreachable.

• Ensure clear handoffs between shifts.

• Build redundancy in critical monitoring functions.

Post-Event Actions

When the event concludes or risk diminishes, move to post-event actions. An example post-event plan might include:

Immediate (Within 24 Hours):

• Document final conditions observed.

• Capture any active events.

• Debrief with field teams on decision effectiveness.

• Save all simulation outputs and monitoring logs.

Short-Term (Within 1 Week):

• Compare forecast accuracy with observed conditions.

• Evaluate simulation accuracy for any events that occurred.

• Review decision points and timing.

• Identify what worked well and what needs improvement.

Ongoing:

• Update monitoring procedures based on lessons learned.

• Refine decision triggers and thresholds.

• Improve camera or weather station coverage in identified gaps.

• Enhance training for monitoring personnel.