Following the execution of the weather (with target delivery 06:00 local time, risk forecasts are calculated once daily and displayed on a 100-hour horizon in three hour time increments (for example, 00:00, 03:00, 06:00, etc.) The risk forecast time step needs enough remaining forecast horizon to run the full fire simulation duration of eight hours, means the final forecast intervals are skipped if there isn’t enough remaining forecast data to support the full eight-hour simulation window.
The system does not interpolate or recalculate risk in real time between those these three-hour runs. Each calculated risk value is treated as valid for the following three-hour window.
Risk is calculated for two different set of ignition points within a project area. These are:
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Asset Risk - ignition points associated with electric utility infrastructure overhead assets
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Territory Wide Risk - a regular grid of ignition points across a service territory.
Independent of the ignition source, a consistent set of risk metrics are calculated and assigned back to the ignition locations.
the following table provides a summary of the risk outputs that are derived for the daily risk forecasts and available in the FireRisk application.
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Risk Forecast Output Data |
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Dataset |
Description |
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Risk Associated with Ignition Locations (either Asset or Territory Wide ignition locations) |
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